Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 0.055933 0.063540 0.071400 0.080094 0.089414 0.099076 0.109823
2025-05-04 0.044559 0.055887 0.068264 0.082647 0.098766 0.116146 0.136179
2025-05-11 0.035386 0.048564 0.063688 0.081994 0.103237 0.126827 0.154725
2025-05-18 0.030306 0.044932 0.062420 0.084280 0.110329 0.139887 0.175487
2025-05-25 0.026171 0.041757 0.061110 0.086002 0.116344 0.151397 0.194250
2025-06-01 0.021230 0.036848 0.057076 0.083896 0.117364 0.156735 0.205580
2025-06-08 0.017227 0.032636 0.053459 0.081892 0.118155 0.161525 0.216043
2025-06-15 0.015340 0.031148 0.053220 0.084021 0.123930 0.172218 0.233477
2025-06-22 0.013372 0.029269 0.052244 0.085026 0.128172 0.180978 0.248563
2025-06-29 0.012477 0.028933 0.053338 0.088726 0.135830 0.193943 0.268780
2025-07-06 0.010836 0.027166 0.052224 0.089319 0.139393 0.201789 0.282752
2025-07-13 0.010699 0.027919 0.054798 0.094993 0.149623 0.218020 0.307087
2025-07-20 0.008596 0.025044 0.051925 0.093196 0.150269 0.222586 0.317603
2025-07-27 0.007732 0.024337 0.052332 0.096060 0.157205 0.235269 0.338410
2025-08-03 0.006282 0.022224 0.050347 0.095354 0.159257 0.241685 0.351414
2025-08-10 0.005591 0.021543 0.050597 0.097865 0.165666 0.253715 0.371501
2025-08-17 0.004886 0.020687 0.050467 0.099753 0.171190 0.264595 0.390165
2025-08-24 0.003698 0.018393 0.047671 0.097445 0.170748 0.267589 0.398740
2025-08-31 0.002736 0.016329 0.045060 0.095245 0.170327 0.270516 0.407165
2025-09-07 0.002398 0.015897 0.045366 0.097582 0.176339 0.281971 0.426562
2025-09-14 0.001986 0.015104 0.044923 0.098683 0.180560 0.291045 0.442917
2025-09-21 0.001873 0.015264 0.046308 0.102738 0.189073 0.305904 0.466814
2025-09-28 0.001506 0.014402 0.045622 0.103386 0.192622 0.314098 0.482095